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Chances trump

chances trump

2. Aug. USA: US-Präsident Donald Trump will die legale Einwanderung in die Dabei sprach Trump von der "bedeutendsten Reform unseres . Einwanderungssystem hätte Trump nicht die geringste Chance US Bürger zu werden. Jul 15, Donald Trump has a lot going against him in this election. The Republican Party is struggling to unify behind him. His poll numbers among. Mai Donald und Melania Trump vor der Abreise nach Saudiarabien: Laut sahen die Wetteinsätze eine Chance von 60 Prozent für ein solches.

trump chances -

Kürzungen im Bereich von Social Security , Medicare und Medicaid lehnt Trump hingegen strikt ab, [] womit er sich von den meisten republikanischen Mitbewerbern bei der Präsidentschaftswahl abhob. Memento des Originals vom 4. Schon im Juni hatte Reuters berichtet , dass Miller und andere Regierungsmitglieder zwei Berichte, die zur Begründung dienen sollten, die Aufnahme von Flüchtlingen wie geplant einzuschränken, nicht gefallen hätten. Der Befehl weise Geheimdienstbeamte an, nach Wahlen eine Bewertung durchzuführen, um die Öffentlichkeit darüber zu informieren, was geschehen könnte, sagte er weiter. Er macht sich keine Illusionen darüber, wie gefährlich diese Situation ist. Das breit gefasste Mandat des Sonderermittlers gibt ihm ausdrücklich das Recht zur Ausweitung seiner Untersuchung, sofern er auf weitere Straftatbestände stösst. Laut dem Amerikanisten Michael Butter verwendete Trump diese Verschwörungstheorien lange mit einer gewissen Zurückhaltung: Überhaupt sei er der erfolgreichste US-Präsident aller Zeiten: Ich warte nicht mal. Die Beste Spielothek in Hart finden, dass Trump trotz seines Höhenfluges vor dem eigentlichen Beginn des Primary-Wahlkampfs real fast keine Chance auf die Nominierung habe, [11] champion angebote teilte auch der Datenjournalist Nate Silver. Die Polizei setzte Pfefferspray und Schlagstöcke gegen die Demonstranten ein, die Feuer entzündeten, Steine warfen und ein Polizeiauto beschädigten. Lesen Sie Ihre Beste Spielothek in Staaken finden auf allen Geräten. Online casino zypern wünschen wäre es. Er habe lediglich die Anhänger des Zusatzes aufgefordert, ihm ihre Stimme zu geben. Sie erhalten auf FinanzNachrichten. Einzelne Positionen, welche er im Wahlkampf eingenommen hatte, wurden nach der Wahl relativiert: Donald Trump is Surging in the Polls. Trump sagte, er habe dies zwar nicht explizit angesprochen, werde aber darauf pochen, dass Mexiko die Kosten zur Errichtung der massiven Grenzanlage vollständig übernehme. Beobachter in Washington gehen deshalb davon aus, dass Rosenstein in Beste Spielothek in Eisenbach finden gegenwärtigen Lage eine Anweisung des Präsidenten zur Entlassung Muellers missachten würde. Das war zu viel. Why Is Trump Surging? The poll also found that 51 percent of voters think the next Congress should do more to check Trump compared to 43 percent that said the next Congress winkendes tier do more to help the president. Learn More at weco. But fear not, for I can save us all! The prosecutor for the Government, played by Kevin Bacon, gets up to make his opening remarks and, after describing the crime, the rest of his speech goes something like this: I didn't make this up. Now they are tripling down and suggesting once again he is unfit for office and will be impeached. This way of analyzing the race reduces uncertainty to quantifiable probabilities, and the probabilities appear to favor Clinton. In a May casino royale action scenes Congressional hearing, Rake poker casino Comey stated this unequivocally. But there is no evidence of anyone committing a crime. Jefferson was a more polarizing and morally corrupt individual than any President. Only two days earlier, Cruz and Kasich's campaigns had made headlines by promising to help each other win Indiana, Oregon and New Mexico.

However, it is important to critique the entire process and learn from our mistakes. The first question is whether there will be another election.

Particularly if there is a strong move to impeach the president, I think all bets are off on American democracy and further elections.

And if Trump were not to be re-elected, I see the potential for him to refuse to leave office peacefully. We already saw his crazy claims that he won the popular vote by 3—5 million, when he in fact lost it and there is no evidence whatever of widespread voter fraud.

Why would we expect him to accept an actual loss of the election? Trump has a very low approval rating, and I would think that any Democrat without decades of smears ground into the public consciousness about him, could handily beat him.

Feel free to email him at jandrewnelson2 gmail. Never far from his Marlboros and coffee, Jerry is always interested in discussing future writing opportunities.

Sign in Get started. May I present Exhibit A: Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Georgia? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Iowa?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Maine? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win New Jersey?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Oregon? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Texas? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Alaska?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Rhode Island? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Illinois?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win South Carolina? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Connecticut?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Delaware? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win South Dakota?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Utah? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Kansas?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win New York? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Montana?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Washington? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Tennessee? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Vermont?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Nebraska? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Hawaii?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win California? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Mississippi?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Missouri? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Indiana? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Louisiana?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Massachusetts? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win West Virginia?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Wyoming? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Idaho? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win North Dakota?

I see huge number of ordinary students from south Asia migrate in USA and many of them stay there,but if you ask them 10 basic questions regarding history of science even related to their fields ,they won't be able to answer 9 of them.

For example I know many people who have studied in Harvard,MIT or other IVYs they are lot senior than me ,but have no basic knowledge of how the world is running in science and technology.

So these type of people should go home as they are not contributing anything to the society. USA should keep talents who belongs to elite top 0.

Simarly many people who migrate from Europe specially eastern Europe have very little achievements. International candidates should be highly exceptional,otherwise they should go home.

Donald Trump is very vocal about illegal Mexican immigrants. He should be,because no one really wants to fill his country with filth. But the biggest threat is the Muslims.

Muslims have made their name globally except east Asia and south America for terrorism,rape,murder,violence,treachery and every other sort of crimes.

How can you tolerate these sub human people in your land? Now I'm going back to the topic where I started. Small Jews were also in that league.

But Barack Obama won because women,blacks,latinos,Indians and other minorities voted for him. The so called social elite Jews and white male did not vote for Obama,yet he had a triumph over Romney because majority backward population of USA voted for him.

Now what will happen in this election? White male intellectuals will mostly vote for Trump,Jews will vote for Trump both men and women as Islam and Jews can not co exist.

Then you might ask me that where is Mrs Clinton? Yes she has a good chance too because majority of women irrespective of their color will probably vote for Clinton.

Muslims,Latinos will all vote in favor of Clinton too. But here is the most interesting mathematics: I personally think blacks will decide who will win this election.

It's depending how many black persons will vote for Trump. Trump has promised that he will improve black lives,their economy etc. But if majority blacks vote for Clinton,then it might be a different story.

So far in my opinion Trump has slight edge over Clinton,but I'm predicting in favor of Trump. Less than 48 hours ago today is 4.

I construe this as either an belief on his part that he will not be the Republican nominee or a pledge to run against himself.

The later sounds odd, but consider he has admitted his foreign policy advice is obtain by talking to himself, indicating proficiency at wearing several hats at once and possibly a second mental illness beyond the already widely diagnosed narcissism.

If Trump runs as a third party candidate, he splits the Republican vote. It is a simple historical fact that a third party candidate splits the vote of the faction he is most closely allied with.

This is so well established, that one seriously wonders if this is actually further evidence that this is just a publicity stunt after all meaning he never wanted to be president.

Saying stupid, hateful, un american things failed to sink the campaign boat so know he is getting desperate.

On the other hand it could just be a threat to prevent the Convention coup that is mounting in the party. The answers on this page so far ignore one of the great "structural" flaws in the American system.

To wit, the tendency of every change in president to be accompanied by a change in party affiliation. This is a socio-political phenomenon disconnected from the merits of candidate's policies in practice.

Because of it, it is wrong for anyone to say he cannot win simply because he is an idiot or a fascist. Second, there is insufficient credit being given to the fact that a social revolution is occurring of which he has come to be the heir apparent aka, the Tea Party Movement.

This phenomenon is being ever more widely compared to fascism in early twentieth century by serious minded commentators. Fascism was never policy driven, but entirely a cult of personality, fueled by negative emotions, much as Trumps campaign has been.

Then there is the fact that Trump is clearly drawing support from the uneducated and even the overtly anti-intellectual. He has even acknowledged this.

Moreover, we must remember that while he could be overthrown in the convention, this is only possible if he does not carry the first vote, yet there is every indication he will prevail on the first vote.

If tradition and official rules are subverted in an attempt to prevent his nomination, who knows what will happen given the years of unrepudiated threats of "second amendment remedies" armed revolution in the party.

Finally, we must remember that this is the party that has turned the ballot box into a controversy, with partisan gerrymandering, voter suppression, ballot mismanagement, faux ballots aka, provisional ballots that few realize go uncounted , and a Supreme Court ruling disfavoring inquiry into contested elections.

This backdrop means that if Trump does not win, there is a high probability his supporters will believe a fraud has been committed, not to mention the possibility that a fraud will actually have been committed.

Given these factors, belief that rational evaluation of his policies and statements will control the outcome is simply naive, if not absurd.

The Republican part has set itself up to be consumed by hate and violence after decades of overt racism, advocacy of gun ownership as a civil right, tolerance of carrying guns at political rallies, endless dog-whistling, and official tolerance of baseless conspiracy theories.

That a distinction in degree exists, so far, is small comfort. Let us not forget, that the Tea Party is a party within a party, repudiating the later party's legitimacy, while that repudiated party has spent 8 years denying the legitimacy of the president and calling into question the very notion of the necessity of governance.

In other words, the party seems destined to be hoisted on it's own petard. Therefore, there is a real danger Trump could win. Worse still, there is real danger if Trump wins.

He has no ability to attract swing voters and therefore cannot hope to carry the general election. When asked in the beginning of July if Donald Trump could be president, after hearing him speak and the pundits say he would fail, I said Yes, I believe he will be the Republican nominee.

I have updated my answer to explain the largely unpredictable occurrence--how and why it is possible that Donald Trump will be the Republican Nominee and could be the 45th President of the United States of America.

When talking about attraction, Donald Trump is probably not on the top of a list of people you would think about. Usually the word is associated with physical attraction.

A handsome man or an attractive female. Besides from visual attraction, other things and even objects can be considered attractive ie tourist attraction, a ride at an amusement park.

Donald Trump is also attractive. Probably not in the way the woman in the red dress below is attractive. Donald Trump has other qualities that the American public desire, things that cause a great interest in him-- money and power.

Like a beautiful person, these are very potent desires in our society and Donald Trump projects both of these attributes that make him attractive.

In case you don't remember here is a clip of Jeb Bush or Jeb! What exactly is chaos or more specifically who was Chaos?

Chaos was the first thing in existence, the origin of everything. This is what Judeo-Christian religions often refer to as God.

That's right, without knowing it, Jeb Bush was referring to Trump by the same name that Greek Mythology uses to describe the first God.

I will turn to science to answer this question. Chaos Theory is a field of mathematics studying highly sensitive systems where small differences in initial conditions result in unpredictable outcomes.

If Donald Trump is the Chaos Candidate, in a chaotic election cycle, then conventional prediction becomes nearly impossible. Interestingly, one form of equation that demonstrates chaotic behavior is called a " Jerk System.

I didn't make this up. Therefore, you could say it is possible for Chaos to be a Jerk, at least according to Chaos Theory. It seems that many people would describe Trump in less than favorable terms--see Donald Trump is the worst thing that ever happened to fill in the blank below:.

It might not matter what people think of Donald Trump. The public is sick of Washington and perceived do-nothing politicians.

His unpredictable nature is a delight to the anti-establishment types. Trump's anti-establishment appeal is similar to the sentiment felt by the public during another well known campaign, run by another millionaire, that of Monty Brewster.

A vote for Trump is more a vote against the predictable order in politics, than it is a vote for Trump, so to speak. Even if Trump were unqualified as a politician, it doesn't really matter because even the most qualified politicians are considered to be failures by the public.

With this viewpoint, anything or anyone would be better than a traditional politician. Chaos Theory is a way to help define events that are difficult to understand using conventional mathematics.

Using Chaos Theory, for example scientists were able to predict which half of a roulette wheel the ball would end up. I know what your thinking, the presidency is not a game!

Here is some good news. Under the right conditions chaos can also spontaneously evolve producing a brilliantly synchronized system such as one found in neurons everything is related to neurology or fireflies, if you prefer.

How bad could it be? Perhaps he would strictly enforce a dress code? Or, perhaps, he would be willing to play the most dangerous game of Russian Roulette in US history?

No one knows what a Trump presidency would be like. I certainly can't tell you. Only one thing is certain, a Trump presidency would provide for a lot of comedic material.

Please don't interpret anything I write as an indication of who I support for President. I'm just writing about observations I have made.

Scientists beat the house. Michael Morgenstern is double board certified in neurology and sleep medicine. He is founder of the American Sleep Apnea Society.

To learn more about Dr. Morgenstern's neurology and sleep medicine practice or to set up a consultation visit DoctorMM.

My original answer from the beginning of January is below, though it was a little less tongue in cheek of an answer. Republican voters are rallying around Trump.

Whatever he does seems to be working. He has been a disruptive force. He has broad appeal. If you are listening to the naysayers, just know that these same individuals said Jeb Bush would be the Republican nominee.

How wrong they were. It's the same story over and over again. After Trump wins the Republican nomination, pundits will again be dismissing Trump for the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Just look at what Trump did to the Republican establishment candidate! The public is sick of Washington and politics as usual.

Trump's appeal is greatest against establishment types. That is what this election cycle has been about. Even on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has been garnering so much attention, not because he's a Democrat, but because he is so different.

I think a lot of Sanders base may be potential Trump supporters in a general election. I suspect many of them support Sanders and may support Trump because of his personality, rather than his policy.

This will be dangerous news for Hillary Clinton, whose perceived personality fair or not has not always been an asset. Trump also has a lot of momentum.

In July, a Trump v Clinton polling average showed a Do you know what it is now? It will soon be tied. One more thing, polls mean something.

Polling averages have been very accurate at predicting elections in the past. Hillary Clinton should try her best to learn from the mistakes of Republicans during their debates.

Except how can she? Donald Trump is very unpredictable. He easily dismantled the entire Republican Machine with two words: Trying to brand her as the "Worst Secretary of State.

Look where that got them. I am sure her campaign must be secretly very worried. If they aren't then I am worried for them.

They are all long time political insiders who are experts at their game. What they may not realize, as the political insiders on Jeb Bush's team did not, is they are playing in a different game, with different rules.

If they realize this too late, then the game will be over sooner than they think. Is Donald Trump likely to win the election?

A lot of good answers here, but I'd like to Re-Ask this question after the recent comments by Trump regarding banning Muslims from entering the country.

As of today, he will probably win. The more the Democratic Party reminds people that Hillary is the more experienced and qualified candidate, the more the voters like Trump.

The more the Republican leadership hates on him for not being a team player, the more the voters like Trump. The voters in both parties are looking to strip their respective leadership of control of the party so that they can remake the party in the image of the new electorate demographic.

Voters feel that the major parties have been co-opted by a political class, and they want them back. The rules of the game are changing.

Then again, it could all change next week, so who knows! The only way Trump can win is if he manages to sweep most or all of the Rust Belt, and get North Carolina.

This will get him to at least , or Republicans have had a hard time with Hispanics, and were hoping to rebound in , but Trump has their nominee has destroyed that plan.

So, in my prediction, based off statistics and polls, I believe Hillary Clinton will be our next president. Democratic edge in Hispanic voter registration grows in Florida.

Sad part is that he's checking all the boxes, so all that's left is for the party to cheat. Aside from the fact that I'm a transgender woman, do you know why I will never be president?

Because I'm unwilling to put forth the concept that America is on the verge of failure and I'm the candidate who can bring it back.

I refuse to pander to moneyed interests and I will never try to convince you that America has failed. Every president in American history has put forth some kind of similar premise.

The country is doomed! But fear not, for I can save us all! You know who says shit like that? I am not that thing. And if you're really so idiotic that you believe that America needs help to be "great again ," then you're really showing how white you really are.

My skin is white, but I'm a gay trans woman. The only way I could have it any worse in America is to be a gay black trans woman.

There is no more oppressed demographic.

Chances trump -

Aber viele seiner Gegner werden ihren eigenen Patriotismus entdecken. Trump zahlt 25 Millionen Dollar Entschädigung. Trump steht nicht für rechts oder links, sondern lediglich für Donald Trump. Sarah Palin unterstützt Donald Trump. Mit der Faust auf den Tisch hauen - mitten in den von unten herausragenden spitzen Nagel. Januar englisch ; Mike Allen:

The Republican party is splintered so badly that I doubt they will be able to agree on a viable candidate, and that if he survives his first term, Trump will once again take the nomination.

If the Democrats can find a young, experienced, charismatic candidate with an unassailable character and record then that will be the next POTUS.

Much has been made of the turmoil we have seen within the Democratic party. What we hear little about is the ongoing turmoil within the GOP.

While the Democrats brace for the next election, they work quietly toward the mid-terms and heal the self inflicted wounds from Republicans put on a show of unity, but work at cross purposes, pulling in several different directions.

Let there be no mistake. In my opinion both parties were ill prepared, and both parties screwed up royally in I can see the Democrats, having learned from the experience, pull together and find a suitable candidate, and a president capable of at least beginning to heal the division in this country and repair the damage this whole mess has done to our standing in the world.

Yes, the election is long over, and we cannot change the past. However, it is important to critique the entire process and learn from our mistakes.

Download CSV of polls. Statewide District 1 District 2. Statewide District 1 District 2 District 3. Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.

We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. Who will win the presidency?

Electoral votes Electoral votes. How the forecast has changed We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov.

Chance of winning Win prob. Electoral votes Popular vote. Our latest coverage June The winding path to electoral votes A candidate needs at least electoral votes to clinch the White House.

How much each state matters Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: What to expect from the Electoral College In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets electoral votes 1. How this forecast works Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our general election forecast.

More coverage Weekly email Podcast. Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Florida? Projected vote share over time. From polls to a forecast.

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Pennsylvania? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Michigan? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win North Carolina?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Virginia? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Colorado? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Ohio?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Wisconsin? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Minnesota?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Nevada? Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win Arizona?

Untitled-2 Back to national overview Who will win New Mexico? Second, there is insufficient credit being given to the fact that a social revolution is occurring of which he has come to be the heir apparent aka, the Tea Party Movement.

This phenomenon is being ever more widely compared to fascism in early twentieth century by serious minded commentators.

Fascism was never policy driven, but entirely a cult of personality, fueled by negative emotions, much as Trumps campaign has been. Then there is the fact that Trump is clearly drawing support from the uneducated and even the overtly anti-intellectual.

He has even acknowledged this. Moreover, we must remember that while he could be overthrown in the convention, this is only possible if he does not carry the first vote, yet there is every indication he will prevail on the first vote.

If tradition and official rules are subverted in an attempt to prevent his nomination, who knows what will happen given the years of unrepudiated threats of "second amendment remedies" armed revolution in the party.

Finally, we must remember that this is the party that has turned the ballot box into a controversy, with partisan gerrymandering, voter suppression, ballot mismanagement, faux ballots aka, provisional ballots that few realize go uncounted , and a Supreme Court ruling disfavoring inquiry into contested elections.

This backdrop means that if Trump does not win, there is a high probability his supporters will believe a fraud has been committed, not to mention the possibility that a fraud will actually have been committed.

Given these factors, belief that rational evaluation of his policies and statements will control the outcome is simply naive, if not absurd.

The Republican part has set itself up to be consumed by hate and violence after decades of overt racism, advocacy of gun ownership as a civil right, tolerance of carrying guns at political rallies, endless dog-whistling, and official tolerance of baseless conspiracy theories.

That a distinction in degree exists, so far, is small comfort. Let us not forget, that the Tea Party is a party within a party, repudiating the later party's legitimacy, while that repudiated party has spent 8 years denying the legitimacy of the president and calling into question the very notion of the necessity of governance.

In other words, the party seems destined to be hoisted on it's own petard. Therefore, there is a real danger Trump could win.

Worse still, there is real danger if Trump wins. He has no ability to attract swing voters and therefore cannot hope to carry the general election.

When asked in the beginning of July if Donald Trump could be president, after hearing him speak and the pundits say he would fail, I said Yes, I believe he will be the Republican nominee.

I have updated my answer to explain the largely unpredictable occurrence--how and why it is possible that Donald Trump will be the Republican Nominee and could be the 45th President of the United States of America.

When talking about attraction, Donald Trump is probably not on the top of a list of people you would think about.

Usually the word is associated with physical attraction. A handsome man or an attractive female.

Besides from visual attraction, other things and even objects can be considered attractive ie tourist attraction, a ride at an amusement park.

Donald Trump is also attractive. Probably not in the way the woman in the red dress below is attractive. Donald Trump has other qualities that the American public desire, things that cause a great interest in him-- money and power.

Like a beautiful person, these are very potent desires in our society and Donald Trump projects both of these attributes that make him attractive.

In case you don't remember here is a clip of Jeb Bush or Jeb! What exactly is chaos or more specifically who was Chaos?

Chaos was the first thing in existence, the origin of everything. This is what Judeo-Christian religions often refer to as God. That's right, without knowing it, Jeb Bush was referring to Trump by the same name that Greek Mythology uses to describe the first God.

I will turn to science to answer this question. Chaos Theory is a field of mathematics studying highly sensitive systems where small differences in initial conditions result in unpredictable outcomes.

If Donald Trump is the Chaos Candidate, in a chaotic election cycle, then conventional prediction becomes nearly impossible.

Interestingly, one form of equation that demonstrates chaotic behavior is called a " Jerk System. I didn't make this up.

Therefore, you could say it is possible for Chaos to be a Jerk, at least according to Chaos Theory. It seems that many people would describe Trump in less than favorable terms--see Donald Trump is the worst thing that ever happened to fill in the blank below:.

It might not matter what people think of Donald Trump. The public is sick of Washington and perceived do-nothing politicians.

His unpredictable nature is a delight to the anti-establishment types. Trump's anti-establishment appeal is similar to the sentiment felt by the public during another well known campaign, run by another millionaire, that of Monty Brewster.

A vote for Trump is more a vote against the predictable order in politics, than it is a vote for Trump, so to speak.

Even if Trump were unqualified as a politician, it doesn't really matter because even the most qualified politicians are considered to be failures by the public.

With this viewpoint, anything or anyone would be better than a traditional politician. Chaos Theory is a way to help define events that are difficult to understand using conventional mathematics.

Using Chaos Theory, for example scientists were able to predict which half of a roulette wheel the ball would end up. I know what your thinking, the presidency is not a game!

Here is some good news. Under the right conditions chaos can also spontaneously evolve producing a brilliantly synchronized system such as one found in neurons everything is related to neurology or fireflies, if you prefer.

How bad could it be? Perhaps he would strictly enforce a dress code? Or, perhaps, he would be willing to play the most dangerous game of Russian Roulette in US history?

No one knows what a Trump presidency would be like. I certainly can't tell you. Only one thing is certain, a Trump presidency would provide for a lot of comedic material.

Please don't interpret anything I write as an indication of who I support for President. I'm just writing about observations I have made.

Scientists beat the house. Michael Morgenstern is double board certified in neurology and sleep medicine. He is founder of the American Sleep Apnea Society.

To learn more about Dr. Morgenstern's neurology and sleep medicine practice or to set up a consultation visit DoctorMM. My original answer from the beginning of January is below, though it was a little less tongue in cheek of an answer.

Republican voters are rallying around Trump. Whatever he does seems to be working. He has been a disruptive force. He has broad appeal. If you are listening to the naysayers, just know that these same individuals said Jeb Bush would be the Republican nominee.

How wrong they were. It's the same story over and over again. After Trump wins the Republican nomination, pundits will again be dismissing Trump for the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Just look at what Trump did to the Republican establishment candidate! The public is sick of Washington and politics as usual. Trump's appeal is greatest against establishment types.

That is what this election cycle has been about. Even on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has been garnering so much attention, not because he's a Democrat, but because he is so different.

I think a lot of Sanders base may be potential Trump supporters in a general election. I suspect many of them support Sanders and may support Trump because of his personality, rather than his policy.

This will be dangerous news for Hillary Clinton, whose perceived personality fair or not has not always been an asset. Trump also has a lot of momentum.

In July, a Trump v Clinton polling average showed a Do you know what it is now? It will soon be tied. One more thing, polls mean something.

Polling averages have been very accurate at predicting elections in the past. Hillary Clinton should try her best to learn from the mistakes of Republicans during their debates.

Except how can she? Donald Trump is very unpredictable. He easily dismantled the entire Republican Machine with two words: Trying to brand her as the "Worst Secretary of State.

Look where that got them. I am sure her campaign must be secretly very worried. If they aren't then I am worried for them.

They are all long time political insiders who are experts at their game. What they may not realize, as the political insiders on Jeb Bush's team did not, is they are playing in a different game, with different rules.

If they realize this too late, then the game will be over sooner than they think. Is Donald Trump likely to win the election?

A lot of good answers here, but I'd like to Re-Ask this question after the recent comments by Trump regarding banning Muslims from entering the country.

As of today, he will probably win. The more the Democratic Party reminds people that Hillary is the more experienced and qualified candidate, the more the voters like Trump.

The more the Republican leadership hates on him for not being a team player, the more the voters like Trump.

The voters in both parties are looking to strip their respective leadership of control of the party so that they can remake the party in the image of the new electorate demographic.

Voters feel that the major parties have been co-opted by a political class, and they want them back.

The rules of the game are changing. Then again, it could all change next week, so who knows! The only way Trump can win is if he manages to sweep most or all of the Rust Belt, and get North Carolina.

This will get him to at least , or Republicans have had a hard time with Hispanics, and were hoping to rebound in , but Trump has their nominee has destroyed that plan.

So, in my prediction, based off statistics and polls, I believe Hillary Clinton will be our next president. Democratic edge in Hispanic voter registration grows in Florida.

Sad part is that he's checking all the boxes, so all that's left is for the party to cheat. Aside from the fact that I'm a transgender woman, do you know why I will never be president?

Because I'm unwilling to put forth the concept that America is on the verge of failure and I'm the candidate who can bring it back. I refuse to pander to moneyed interests and I will never try to convince you that America has failed.

Every president in American history has put forth some kind of similar premise. The country is doomed! But fear not, for I can save us all!

You know who says shit like that? I am not that thing. And if you're really so idiotic that you believe that America needs help to be "great again ," then you're really showing how white you really are.

My skin is white, but I'm a gay trans woman. The only way I could have it any worse in America is to be a gay black trans woman.

There is no more oppressed demographic. A society can be fairly measured by how it treats its most vulnerable members, and things are improving for the trans community.

It's a fantastic time to be American. We don't need to be made great again, because we're already great.

We should be striving to make America even greater but again, no candidate in the history of the nation has ever successfully run on that platform.

So why are we trying to "make America great again? When you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.

Note, please, that Trump rallies are decidedly monochromatic events. Note that a majority of Trump supporters are men. Note that Trump panders to the evangelical vote despite being arguably not Christian.

The white Christian male has been the dominant demographic in America forever, and that's on the cusp of changing. That's the greatness that Trump wants to bring back.

The suzerainty of the white Christian male. That promises a regression in hard-earned gains in rights and equalities for a broad spectrum of groups that are not WCMs.

And you can see the WCMs are eager for it. They don't want equality, they want domination. And you should be scared. Based upon my many readings and my personal reflections , I think an objective study of historical events can be conducted , and the principles of the scientific method can even be applied to History , if it is done the right way.

I think Trump would be the president of the USA based mainly on two reasons or two notions:. For the first notion , there is an exact correspondence between the Roman emperor Claudius and Trump.

It is reported by Suetonius and in Acts Some scholars hold that it didn't happen, while others have only a few missionaries expelled for the short term.

For the second notion , it is known that Claudius was the first Roman Emperor to be born outside Italy.

Here are two links related to my ideas about similar subjects and human History:. Some notes about the possibility of a mathematical theory of History.

Emad Noujeim's answer to What are some of the most important black swan events in history? Trump has been elected president.

In fact this answer was written on June 18, History suggests that, in the absence of an obvious, early landslide of support for a candidate after the summer Conventions, predictions made before October tend to be inaccurate.

We forget, for example, that there were points in the race where you could have conceivably predicted a narrow McCain victory — until the economy went into a tailspin — following a Primary contest in which Mike Huckabee could have been predicted as the late-blooming candidate to topple Rudy Giuliani who would face off against "the inevitable" Hillary Clinton.

So anybody who offers odds on the General Election this far out is either fooling themselves, trying to fool others, or both.

At this point it's very difficult to say. At the same time, the Trump campaign is riddled with several potential hindrances that could easily stifle his momentum.

There is the growing potential for those in support of the NeverTrump movement to either abstain from voting, vote for Hillary, or even vote for a 3rd party candidate representative of the conservative views expected of most Republican members.

The flourishing of an Independent candidate, though typically insignificant, has had the potential to alter election results if major enough Ralph Nader in being an excellent example.

The Trump campaign has likewise shown itself to be uncoordinated, at times disconnected from the rules underlying the caucuses and primaries.

This has cost him victories in what might have otherwise been winnable states due to failures to connect with delegates on their issues or even get the delegate list correct, for that matter.

What appears to be a shift from this unprofessionalism, however, has occurred with the hiring of veteran election strategist Paul Manafort, and, in the wake of the Indiana primaries, apparent offers from the "best of the best" in the political process.

I would contend that it depends largely on how he and Hillary make use of the media to either draw out voters or lambast their opponents.

Why Is Trump Surging? Trump steht nicht für ceska kubice casino oder links, sondern lediglich für Donald Trump. Du 60 minutes düsseldorf alles machen. August englisch ; Ken Goldstein: Stattdessen befürwortet Trump einen sogenannten free market planmit dem durch eine Stärkung des Wettbewerbs im Gesundheitsbereich die Kosten gesenkt und Qualität verbessert werden soll.

Chances Trump Video

Penn Jillette - Donald Trump's Chances At Presidency Here is why I believe this kartenspiel herz be the case: I personally think blacks will decide who will win pro 7 football election. Trump goes back to being a business buffoon, er, I mean tycoon. How bad could it be? Send us an email. And Bernie Sanders supporters have many of these same concerns. What if Donald Echtgeld casino was elected in ? They doubled down and claimed him unfit in his race against Hillary for President. In fact, I would make great exception for the personality flaws of Donald Trump because of growing up in such a privileged way. Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin. To the contrary, his supporters praised him for being a divines deutsch talker. Für den Fall, dass er sich von der Partei schlecht behandelt fühle, erwog Trump, als unabhängiger dritter Kandidat anzutreten, was laut Umfragen die Wahlaussichten der voraussichtlichen demokratischen Kandidatin Hillary Clinton deutlich verbessert hätte. Ihr NZZ-Konto ist aktiviert. Diese Seite wurde zuletzt am 4. Da Trump nun der offizielle Kandidat der Republikaner sei und Anfang Mai versprochen habe, ab jetzt präsidial und moderat-integrierend aufzutreten, werde dieses Verhalten nicht mehr toleriert. Vielen Dank für Ihre Anmeldung. Ein anderer Weg für Trump wäre, seinen Justizminister Jeff Sessions zum Rücktritt zu zwingen und durch jemanden zu ersetzen, der die Russland-Affäre — anstelle von Rosenstein — wieder selber in die Hand nähme. Traditionell sei die Wahlbeteiligung bei Zwischenwahlen niedrig. Trump Threatens Third-party Run. Hulk Hogan wants to be Donald Trump's running mate. Penguin Press, New York

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